Urumqi Attack

By Raffaello Pantucci

First published on the BBC, May 1, 2014

(published Chinese above, English translation below)

潘圖奇

潘圖奇認為,烏魯木齊火車站的爆炸案,顯示新疆局勢惡化。

4月30日發生在新疆的襲擊,正值中國國家主席習近平結束在自治區的訪問。在那裏,習近平說新疆是中國「反恐與保持社會穩定的前線。」過去一年,新疆的暴力事件不斷增加,這次發生在烏魯木齊火車站的襲擊,再次凸顯了新疆的問題在升級。

Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

China’s Role in Afghanistan

By Raffaello Pantucci (潘睿凡)

First published in 东方早报 (Oriental Morning Post), April 28, 2014

(published Chinese above, English translation below)

维护阿富汗稳定的责任 或将落到中国身上
早报记者 黄翱 发表于2014-04-28 07:06

英国皇家联合服务研究所

高级研究员

“毫无疑问,中国未来应该在阿富汗发挥更大作用。”在长期致力研究中国与中亚各国关系的英国学者潘睿凡看来,随着卡尔扎伊时代的终结以及美国抽身阿富汗带来的不确定,作为在阿富汗有着重要利益的地区大国,中国势必将承担起在阿富汗问题上更大的责任。

“这种重要性不仅仅是对中国以后的经济发展而言,同样也关乎到中国未来的政治和安全。如果未来西方国家对阿富汗缺乏利益关注的话,那么维护该地区稳定的责任就会落到中国这样的区域大国身上。”他说。

东方早报:中国如何向阿富汗人民和国际社会更加清晰地阐述中国的阿富汗战略?

潘睿凡:这其实是一个非常复杂的问题。在中国企业投资项目中,你会发现政策目标和行动之间常常存在根本差异。我与很多阿富汗人有过交流,他们抱怨江西铜业和中冶集团(MCC)只是干守着艾娜克铜矿项目却并不去开发其矿产资源能力,他们对中国未使该项目真正地投入运行很不满。我相信实际情况肯定要复杂得多,我同样也相信中国可以在该事情上做得更多。阿富汗人民真正需要的不仅仅是口头的政治声明,还包括切实的行动。目前,中国在阿富汗地区扮演了重要角色,但却不是最关键的那个。阿富汗人民期望中国扮演关键的角色并能切实完成该角色的使命。还有一点要注意,中国要在巴基斯坦和阿富汗之间中找到一个平衡点。

Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

Shared concerns mask China’s unease over Russia’s action in Ukraine

By Raffaello Pantucci

First published in the South China Morning Post, 7 April, 2014russia_xpag101_42123189

 

Various Russian media outlets have loudly and repeatedly declared that China supports Moscow’s view on Ukraine. Recently, in an interview on Russian state television, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov characterised China as “our very close partners” with whom he has no doubts.

On the face of it, this interpretation is accurate, but the reality is far more complex, with China uneasy about Russia’s actions though it may share Moscow’s concerns.

Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

China in Pakistan: An Awkward Relationship Beneath the Surface

By Raffaello Pantucci

First published by RUSI Newsbrief, 15 Jan 2014

TI52D66BE81B303

Characterised by soaring rhetoric, at first glance the China–Pakistan bilateral relationship appears to be one of the world’s closest. Yet below the surface calm bubble concerns, with policy-makers in Beijing particularly worried about the implications of the 2014 withdrawal from Afghanistan for stability in Pakistan. Western policy-makers should not, however, be optimistic that these concerns will soon translate into Chinese willingness to somehow assume responsibility or leadership in helping Pakistan to develop in a way favourable to the West. Rather, Chinese concerns should be seen within the context of a regional relationship that is likely to grow in prominence as time goes on, ultimately drawing China into a more responsible role in South Asia at least.

Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

Remembering Alex and a New Direction

Group Photo Samarkand 01

Since the sad passing of our co-founder Alexandros Petersen, the China in Central Asia site has taken a respectful and bereaved pause. Alex’s loss was devastating to us as well as to the wider community whom he encountered – something we are all too aware of thanks to the many kind messages we received in the wake of the sad news.

However, we are certain that Alex would have wanted us to continue the work in the spirit that he had imagined it.

Alex was a great lover of Eurasia and was particularly fascinated by China’s growth in the region. Together we had travelled much of the region, published numerous articles, captured endless photographs of China’s rising power in the region, and had an amazing time as we did it.

And it is in the spirit of curious and positive investigation that we plan to continue this project, dedicating the site and its work to his memory.

As a next step, we hope to expand the scope and nature of the site, something that Alex was always keen for. When we first established the project site, our objective was to showcase our work on this topic, part of a book project we are still working towards. But the longer-term vision was to transform this site into a hub for research and writing on China in broader Central Asia. In this vein, we hope to begin accepting submissions of original research and writing on this topic, as well as deepen our links to other excellent sources of research and writing on wider Central Asia.

We are working to implement this new direction for the site and would welcome suggestions about how to make this happen. Feel free to contact us via the site or at chinaincentralasia [at] gmail.com. In the meantime we plan to continue our work and to offer up a glimpse into what we consider one of the most under-explored geostrategic shifts of our time – China’s growing influence across its western borders.

A final note about our dear Alex.

Numerous articles have been written about his academic brilliance, erudition, charm, punk rock skills and more. But we would also like to highlight his humorous and sunny disposition that made him such a pleasurable travel and work companion.

Without him here, we will sadly never be able to properly do his wonderful character justice, but we hope that these pictures drawn from our travels will offer people a view into this side of him that is amongst the things we will miss the most.

Thanks again for all your wishes.

Raffaello and Sue Anne

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

China and Central Asia in 2014

By Alexandros Petersen

Photo courtesy of Mariko Miller

In a year of potential flux across Central Asia, one trend should remain constant: China’s relentless expansion of influence in the region. As Western forces withdraw (in one configuration or another) from Afghanistan, the Manas Transit Center closes in Kyrgyzstan and the United States diplomatic, development and security cooperation efforts are precipitously decreased in the area between the Black Sea and the Pamirs, leaders in the region are preparing for a reality in which they will have to balance Russia’s bombastic pugnacity with China’s economic steamroller. While it would be ideal for the locals, so to speak, to carve out their own geopolitical and economic space, this task is made more difficult with the loss of a non-Eurasian great power as a potential partner. Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

The Route to Better Relationships with China Lies Along the Silk Road

By Raffaello Pantucci

First published in the Financial Times Beyond BRICS, January 8, 2014

A gentle rapprochement is under way between China and the United Kingdom. After almost two years in a diplomatic freeze, David Cameron visited Beijing last month and made an effective play for more trade. For the UK, this is a moment to recalibrate its relationship and play a role in coaxing China towards becoming a responsible international stakeholder. One route to that end is through understanding and working with China’s ‘march westward’ strategy, which has at its heart the re-activation of the ancient Silk Road linking China to Europe.

Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

How Chinese Merchants Are Transforming Central Asia

By Alexandros Petersen

First published in The Atlantic December 2, 2013

Outside Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek, lie two major transit hubs. To the west is the Manas Transit Center, the United States’ main waypoint for soldiers coming in and out of Afghanistan. And to the north is the Dordoi bazaar, said to be the largest re-export market in Central Asia, a funnel for cheap Chinese goods to the relatively rich consumers of Kazakhstan and Russia. The Manas Transit Center is set to close in 2014, marking the end of Washington’s major security presence in the region. Dordoi, meanwhile, will be open indefinitely, an enduring symbol of the region’s Chinese-dominated future. Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

China and India: Time to Cooperate on Afghanistan

by Raffaello Pantucci

First published in The Diplomat, October 23, 2013

Two Asian giants met in Beijing this week, with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh making a reciprocal visit to Beijing. The focus of the trip was economic cooperation and plans to get China-India trade to $100 billion by 2015, although it was the border disputes – and in particular the signing of a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement designed to defuse tensions – that captured the public attention.

What was missing from the agenda, however, was Afghanistan, a country in which Beijing and Delhi both have substantial mutual interests and where the two Asian giants could demonstrate their ability to responsibly manage the regional order.

Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

China Is Pivoting to Central Asia—But Is Washington Paying Attention?

By Alexandros Petersen

First appeared in The Atlantic October 28, 2013

Though it has received comparatively little attention, one of the most profound geopolitical trends of the early 21st century is gathering steam: China’s pivot to Central Asia. As American military forces withdraw from Afghanistan and gaze toward the Asia-Pacific, and while Washington’s European allies put NATO’s eastward expansion on the back burner, Central Asia has become China’s domain of investment and influence. The Washington policy community finally woke up to this reality in September, when Chinese president Xi Jinping swept through Central Asia, signing tens of billions of dollars worth of deals and generally treating the former Soviet republics as if they were in China’s sphere of influence. Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

Central Asia: Can Chinese Cash Glue the Region Together?

Alexandros Petersen is quoted by Chris Rickleton on Eurasianet

As local leaders fear instability following the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan, Chinese policymakers are equally mindful of “unrest in the Fergana Valley once there is a change of leadership in Tashkent, or due to other factors,” said Alexandros Petersen, an energy specialist at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Petersen notes that Beijing is trying to spread risk with yet another alternative pipeline route on the drawing board, from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Tajikistan to China.

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

China re-wires its West

By Raffaello Pantucci

First appeared in Reuters October 4, 2013

In his seminal article from October 2012 advocating for China’s ‘March Westwards’ Beijing University Dean of International Relations Wang Jisi spoke of a ‘new silk road [that] would extend from China’s eastern ports, through the center of Asia and Europe, to the eastern banks of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean coastal countries in the west.’ In addition to this route to Europe, ‘A major route from China’s western regions through the Indian Ocean should also be constructed as quickly as possible.’ An ambitious geopolitical sketch of the world seen from Beijing, but one that is being brought to life under President Xi Jinping, whose recent tour of Central Asia provided some definition of what exactly China is aiming for in its western relationships. Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin

Tightening the Silk Road Belt

By Raffaello Pantucci and Alexandros Petersen

First appeared in The Diplomat September 18, 2013

As Chinese President Xi Jinping headed to Central Asia last week, Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang in the northwest of China, hosted the 3rd annual China Eurasia Expo. While maybe not intentionally choreographed to take place at the same time, the two events have a significant parallelism to them, reflecting the importance of Xinjiang to China’s Central Asian policy. For China, the “Silk Road Economic Belt” that Xi spoke of in Kazakhstan starts in Xinjiang, acting as the connective tissue that binds China’s crowded and prosperous eastern seaboard with Eurasia, Europe and the Middle East.

China’s interest in Central Asia is primarily a selfish one. This is not unusual in national interests: foreign policy is naturally focused on self-interest. But with China in Central Asia, the key role of Xinjiang distinguishes it from China’s relations with other parts of the world. For Beijing, Central Asian policy aims at both increasing China’s connectivity to Europe and the Middle East as well as reaping the benefits of the region’s rich natural resources, but also about helping foster development and therefore long-term stability in Xinjiang. A province periodically wracked by internal violence and instability, Beijing has quite clearly made the calculation that to stabilize the province, more economic development should be encouraged. Continue reading

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedin